This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Last modified: 2021-07-30 19:53:00 -- Page loaded at: 2024-11-28 00:30:44
In evaluating my personal risk I realized that the most critical information for me is "how many people near me are contagious?" While there are lots of numbers available regarding the spread of CoViD-19 none of them provide a good answer to that question. Counts of the total numbers of people infected, number of hospitalizations, number of deaths, and number of positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 tests are each interesting and informative but they do not answer my question.
The single number that would most directly answer the question is: how many people are currently under quarantine or in isolation and being monitored by the county health department? Our local health department now publishes those numbers alongside the total case count. However, most other jurisdictions don't publish that information, and it is not included in most publicly available datasets.
So, in sifting through the available data I've found that the most useful has been the Johns Hopkins CSSE dataset. It provides a county-level time-series report of cases and deaths. Dead people may be contagious but they're not very active so I'm unlikely to have any contact with them; and cumulative case counts tell how many people have been confirmed to be infected, but not how many are currently infected and infectious. The best proxy I can think of is "how many people in our county have been confirmed as infected within the most recent two weeks?" — which is a number we can calculate from the available data.
We must keep in mind that the actual number of infected and infectious people wandering the streets of our community is some multiple of the number that has actually been tested and confirmed positive recently. There is no good way to estimate that multiplier, though access to current testing data could help. For now I assume the muliplier to be somewhere in the range between 10 and 20. Theoretically, even knowing the number of cases currently being monitored by the health department doesn't actually answer our question because those people with known active infections are (supposed to be) isolated and won't be out mingling with the public — but it offers our best window into the local prevalence of the disease.
1
0.48 / 34.64
11.00 / 792.39
2
3
4
Independence Day
5
0.19 / 34.64
12.82 / 852.49
6
0.76 / 41.30
13.10 / 865.64
7
0.86 / 42.63
13.59 / 882.57
8
0.76 / 42.63
14.07 / 900.12
9
0.86 / 43.96
14.58 / 918.67
10
1.33 / 50.63
15.03 / 938.37
11
1.81 / 58.62
15.43 / 956.42
12
2.09 / 63.95
15.86 / 973.66
13
2.28 / 66.61
16.23 / 990.63
14
2.76 / 74.61
16.66 / 1,010.68
15
3.05 / 77.27
17.00 / 1,030.41
16
3.05 / 77.27
17.54 / 1,053.40
17
3.52 / 83.93
17.86 / 1,074.29
18
3.81 / 87.93
18.20 / 1,092.73
19
3.71 / 86.60
18.42 / 1,110.51
20
3.33 / 87.93
18.75 / 1,128.18
21
3.24 / 87.93
18.88 / 1,147.31
22
3.62 / 93.26
19.13 / 1,167.89
23
3.52 / 93.26
19.24 / 1,188.10
24
3.52 / 99.92
19.34 / 1,209.46
25
3.90 / 105.25
19.44 / 1,228.62
26
3.62 / 107.91
19.36 / 1,244.73
27
2.85 / 107.91
19.29 / 1,260.95
28
18 / 46
3.24 / 114.57
19.17 / 1,279.03
29
23 / 64
3.05 / 117.24
19.34 / 1,301.41
3018 / 64
3.33 / 123.90
19.15 / 1,321.41
3118 / 64
3.05 / 126.56
19.06 / 1,341.10
118* / 64*
2.85 / 127.90
18.95 / 1,358.03
218* / 64*
3.05 / 129.23
18.66 / 1,371.77
321 / 65
3.14 / 131.89
18.34 / 1,384.96
421 / 65
3.62 / 138.55
18.19 / 1,401.39
523 / 70
4.09 / 145.22
17.84 / 1,417.65
623 / 83
3.81 / 146.55
17.64 / 1,435.06
719 / 82
3.33 / 146.55
17.32 / 1,451.90
819* / 82*
3.81 / 158.54
17.10 / 1,468.24
919* / 82*
3.71 / 159.87
16.93 / 1,481.72
1031 / 111
4.00 / 163.87
16.79 / 1,496.05
1131? / 111?
3.71 / 165.20
16.39 / 1,509.67
1224 / 117
3.43 / 167.86
16.06 / 1,526.26
1319 / 89
3.33 / 169.20
15.69 / 1,541.07
1427 / 97
4.09 / 179.85
15.63 / 1,559.86
1527* / 97*
4.00 / 183.85
15.43 / 1,574.06
1627* / 97*
4.28 / 189.18
15.32 / 1,586.28
1733 / 101
4.38 / 193.18
15.09 / 1,596.26
1831 / 91
4.66 / 203.83
14.79 / 1,608.98
1941 / 119
5.61 / 223.82
14.67 / 1,623.08
2056 / 117
7.04 / 245.13
14.22 / 1,634.11
2156 / 117
7.04 / 245.13
14.02 / 1,648.20
2256* / 117*
6.66 / 251.80
13.78 / 1,661.16
2386* / 156*
9.33 / 290.43
13.54 / 1,671.32
2467 / 175
9.04 / 290.43
13.28 / 1,681.91
2557 / 176
9.33 / 295.76
13.10 / 1,693.01
2642 / 165
9.14 / 295.76
12.85 / 1,706.16
2741 / 154
9.33 / 299.76
12.72 / 1,719.19
2841* / 154*
8.56 / 299.76
12.33 / 1,732.52
2941* / 154*
8.28 / 299.76
12.30 / 1,746.22
3049 / 165
9.80 / 326.40
12.40 / 1,792.36
3131 / 158
9.80 / 330.40
12.40 / 1,802.48
131 / 157
9.23 / 333.06
12.37 / 1,815.36
238 / 167
8.85 / 347.72
12.21 / 1,827.21
349 / 155
8.95 / 370.37
12.35 / 1,840.36
449* / 155*
8.95 / 370.37
12.39 / 1,855.27
549* / 155*
8.47 / 370.37
12.38 / 1,868.44
649* / 155*
6.66 / 383.69
12.31 / 1,877.77
7Labor Day
54 / 173
8.18 / 405.00
12.04 / 1,884.76
847 / 174
7.80 / 405.00
11.77 / 1,892.45
967 / 181
9.80 / 432.98
11.56 / 1,902.93
1066 / 212
10.09 / 440.97
11.39 / 1,913.79
1166* / 212*
10.09 / 440.97
11.43 / 1,927.91
1266* / 212*
11.99 / 463.62
11.30 / 1,940.06
13
1471 / 236
11.99 / 498.26
11.28 / 1,960.36
1574 / 219
13.42 / 520.91
11.48 / 1,976.07
1681 / 167
13.32 / 534.23
11.44 / 1,987.34
1790 / 178
12.75 / 548.89
11.44 / 2,000.54
1890* / 178*
12.75 / 548.89
11.42 / 2,015.12
1990* / 178*
13.42 / 558.21
11.33 / 2,027.03
20118 / 253
15.23 / 596.85
11.50 / 2,038.74
21119 / 256
14.18 / 603.51
12.09 / 2,054.08
22 86 / 259
15.42 / 620.83
12.40 / 2,066.00
23 90 / 215
14.27 / 632.82
12.46 / 2,077.43
24 91 / 229
14.08 / 638.15
12.62 / 2,090.46
25 91* / 229*
14.08 / 638.15
12.79 / 2,106.95
26 91* / 229*
15.32 / 655.47
12.89 / 2,120.52
2781 / 230
12.47 / 672.79
12.92 / 2,131.38
2884 / 236
12.94 / 679.45
12.90 / 2,140.92
2993 / 236
12.75 / 699.43
12.97 / 2,153.33
3078 / 170
12.75 / 712.75
12.64 / 2,166.18
167 / 174
11.99 / 716.75
12.65 / 2,179.72
267* / 174*
11.99 / 716.75
12.77 / 2,195.77
367* / 174*
11.70 / 722.08
12.92 / 2210.69
483 / 154
10.09 / 738.07
12.92 / 2,221.27
569 / 157
9.61 / 738.07
12.64 / 2,232.81
673 / 153
8.85 / 744.73
12.69 / 2,245.38
763 / 132
8.37 / 750.06
12.95 / 2,260.81
869 / 129
9.14 / 766.04
13.22 / 2,277.58
969* / 129*
9.14 / 766.04
13.36 / 2,294.66
1069* / 129*
7.90 / 766.04
13.57 / 2,311.01
1176 / 144
9.23 / 802.01
13.76 / 2,324.40
1276 / 152
8.85 / 803.35
13.95 / 2,336.70
1376 / 152
7.42 / 803.35
14.18 / 2,352.27
14? / ?
6.85 / 808.68
14.58 / 2,370.42
15? / ?
8.56 / 836.65
14.58 / 2,370.42
16?* / ?*
8.56 / 836.65
15.30 / 2,409.96
17?* / ?*
8.28 / 837.99
15.47 / 2,427.21
18? / ?
8.18 / 852.64
15.74 / 2,441.65
19? / ?
8.75 / 860.63
15.12 / 2,458.47
2096 / 223
8.37 / 861.97
16.51 / 2,476.53
21114 / 15
10.09 / 891.28
16.78 / 2,495.75
22114 / 215
8.95 / 891.28
17.11 / 2,517.09
23125 / 221
9.99 / 905.93
17.61 / 2,541.27
24125* / 221*
9.99 / 905.93
18.26 / 2,566.60
25 / ?
7.99 / 913.92
18.59 / 2,584.71
26? / ?
10.09 / 944.57
19.12 / 2,604.32
27? / ?
10.09 / 944.57
19.57 / 2,626.57
28? / ?
9.71 / 944.57
20.01 / 2,650.93
29? / ?
8.18 / 951.23
20.52 / 2,677.05
30? / ?
8.66 / 957.89
21.12 / 2,706.01
31? / ?
8.85 / 961.88
21.62 / 2,730.31
1? / ?
9.61 / 987.20
22.34 / 2,754.85
2? / ?
9.14 / 988.53
22.88 / 2,779.30
3
429 / ?
7.33 / 993.86
24.42 / 2,838.10
542 / ?
9.71 / 1,027.16
25.50 / 2,874.58
642* / ?*
8.75 / 1,028.50
26.59 / 2,914.03
742* / ?*
9.71 / 1,041.82
27.52 / 2,952.22
861 / ?
11.61 / 1076.46
28.47 / 2,983.76
955 / ?
10.28 / 1088.45
30.46 / 3,035.71
1055 / ?
10.28 / 1,088.45
31.77 / 3,076.71
1159 / 55
11.90 / 1,111.10
33.24 / 3,121.72
1255 / 123
11.99 / 1,119.09
34.57 / 3,166.56
1355* / 123*
11.51 / 1,119.09
36.44 / 3,221.32
1455* / 123*
12.18 / 1,132.41
38.07 / 3,270.87
1560 / 168
12.09 / 1,156.39
39.27 / 3,310.66
1664 / 177
12.37 / 1,165.72
41.05 / 3,359.58
1764 / 177
12.75 / 1,167.05
41.87 / 3,408.03
1855 / 183
13.13 / 1,177.71
43.33 / 3,460.22
1972 / 182
12.85 / 1,207.02
44.63 / 3,516.22
2072* / 182*
12.75 / 1,207.02
45.99 / 3,574.36
2172* / 182*
13.32 / 1,228.33
47.02 / 3,626.93
2282 / 229
11.90 / 1,242.99
47.80 / 3,674.43
2381 / 243
12.47 / 1,262.97
48.91 / 3,725.18
2471 / 276
14.18 / 1,286.95
49.65 / 3,776.76
2571 / 276
12.56 / 1,286.95
50.57 / 3,833.53
26
Thanksgiving Day
71* / 276*
11.99 / 1,286.95
49.57 / 3,866.74
2771* / 276*
13.99 / 1,314.93
50.15 / 3,927.47
2871* / 276*
14.94 / 1,341.58
49.88 / 3,973.38
2984 / 312
14.46 / 1,358.89
50.00 / 4,015.54
3090 / 314
14.85 / 1,373.55
49.84 / 4,062.07
[ 1] 91 / 319
15.32 / 1,381.54
50.24 / 4,115.74
[ 2] 95 / 317
16.08 / 1,402.86
50.86 / 4,176.71
[ 3] 130 / 318
19.41 / 1,478.80
51.52 / 4,242.00
[ 4] 130* / 318*
19.41 / 1,478.80
52.19 / 4,309.65
[ 5] 130* / 318*
21.89 / 1,534.75
52.98 / 4,373.44
[ 6] 216 / 331
27.79 / 1,632.01
53.70 / 4,426.17
[ 7] 282 / 333
33.31 / 1,729.26
54.09 / 4,482.43
[ 8] 285 / N/A
32.64 / 1,743.91
55.00 / 4,546.77
[ 9] 287 / N/A
33.59 / 1,757.24
55.86 / 4,615.56
[10] 189 / N/A
36.64 / 1,799.87
58.29 / 4,682.83
[11] 189* / N/A
35.49 / 1,811.86
58.87 / 4,751.67
[12] 189* / N/A
36.26 / 1,849.16
60.27 / 4,817.23
[13] 199 / N/A
37.87 / 1,889.13
61.34 / 4,874.35
[14] 245 / N/A
42.54 / 1,969.07
62.53 / 4,953.06
[15] 254 / N/A
43.68 / 1,993.05
62.87 / 5,012.49
[16] 285 / N/A
46.53 / 2,054.33
63.93 / 5,089.10
[17] 336 / N/A
47.68 / 2,146.25
64.25 / 5,161.22
[18] 336* / N/A
54.15 / 2,236.85
64.78 / 5,236.98
[19] 336* / N/A
52.53 / 2,270.15
64.41 / 5,296.05
[20] 365 / N/A
41.87 / 2,218.20
64.57 / 5,352.43
[21] 366 / N/A
35.97 / 2,232.85
64.64 / 5,408.76
[22] 313 / N/A
36.92 / 2,260.83
64.10 / 5,466.76
[23] 313* / N/A
35.97 / 2,260.83
64.14 / 5,536.67
[24] 313* / N/A
32.93 / 2,260.83
63.42 / 5,594.50
[25]
Christmas
313* / N/A
32.07 / 2,260.83
60.72 / 5,626.31
[26] 313* / N/A
29.40 / 2,260.83
60.86 / 5,693.76
[27] 595 / N/A
55.86 / 2,671.16
60.01 / 5,738.95
[28] 636 / N/A
55.29 / 2,743.10
59.52 / 5,788.77
[29] 599 / N/A
55.38 / 2,768.42
59.49 / 5,850.77
[30] 648 / N/A
56.34 / 2,843.02
59.04 / 5,920.90
[31] 648* / N/A
49.77 / 2,843.02
58.87 / 5,989.11
[ 1] 648* / N/A
43.30 / 2,843.02
56.98 / 6,037.56
[ 2] 648*/ N/A
40.92 / 2,843.02
59.12 / 6,126.67
[ 3] **
61.47 / 3,078.83
59.59 / 6,189.50
[ 4] **
62.90 / 3,196.07
59.32 / 6,242.23
[ 5] 62.90 / 3,210.72
[ 6] 64.42 / 3,258.68
[ 7] 40.54 / 3,284.00
[ 8] 46.44 / 3,366.60
[ 9] 46.72 / 3,410.56
[10] 46.72 / 3,410.56
[11] 49.67 / 3,470.51
[12] 46.34 / 3,493.16
[13] 45.96 / 3,503.82
[14] 41.49 / 3,538.46
[15] 41.97 / 3,545.12
[16] 41.97 / 3,545.12
70.29 / 7,128.77
[17] 46.53 / 3,609.06
[18] 28.93 / 3,609.06
68.98 / 7,225.24
[19] 31.12 / 3,646.37
[20] 29.21 / 3,667.68
[21] 28.64 / 3,685.00
[22] 23.79 / 3,699.66
[23] 26.36 / 3,779.59
[24] 26.36 / 3,779.59
[25] 23.89 / 3,804.91
[26] 23.89 / 3,804.91
[27] 23.31 / 3,819.56
[28] 23.22 / 3,828.89
[29] 25.50 / 3,895.50
[30] 31.59 / 3,987.42
[31] 33.40 / 4,012.74
[ 1] 28.74 / 4,011.40
[ 2] 27.69 / 4,034.05
[ 3] 27.22 / 4,048.71
[ 4] 27.22 / 4,066.03
[ 5] 27.41 / 4,083.35
[ 6] 22.55 / 4,095.34
[ 7] 22.55 / 4,095.34
[ 8] 31.40 / 4,244.55
[ 9] 30.36 / 4,244.55
[10] 28.74 / 4,231.23
[11] 26.26 / 4,263.20
[12] 21.70 / 4,291.18
[13] 20.27 / 4,296.51
[14] 20.27 / 4,296.51
[15] 20.36 / 4,296.51
[16] 18.94 / 4,299.17
[17] 18.46 / 4,307.16
[18] 18.27 / 4,321.82
[19] 18.84 / 4,347.13
[20] 18.65 / 4,356.46
[21] 18.65 / 4,356.46
[22] 8.95 / 4,369.78
[23] 9.23 / 4,373.78
[24] 11.13 / 4,387.10
[25] 11.99 / 4,431.06
[26] 11.13 / 4,447.05
[27] 11.70 / 4,460.37
[28] 11.70 / 4,460.37
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 12.94 / 4,477.69 |
2 13.42 / 4,487.02 |
3 13.89 / 4,501.67 |
4 13.89 / 4,516.33 |
5 12.85 / 4,526.98 |
6 12.75 / 4,534.98 |
|
| 7 12.75 / 4,534.98 |
8 13.23 / 4,554.96 |
9 13.51 / 4,562.96 |
10 12.75 / 4,565.62 |
11 9.33 / 4,561.62 |
12 9.42 / 4,578.94 |
13 9.04 / 4,586.94 |
| 14 9.04 / 4,586.94 |
15 9.04 / 4,604.26 |
16 8.85 / 4,718.83 |
17 8.09 / 4,614.91 |
18 7.42 / 4,620.24 |
19 8.09 / 4,640.23 |
20 8.47 / 4,653.55 |
| 21 8.47 / 4,653.55 |
22 7.90 / 4,665.54 |
23 7.42 / 4,666.87 |
24 7.90 / 4,676.20 |
25 9.52 / 4,694.85 |
26 8.09 / 4,692.18 |
27 9.42 / 4,718.83 |
| 28 9.42 / 4,718.83 |
29 7.23 / 4,705.51 |
30 7.33 / 4,713.50 |
31 7.80 / 4,724.16 |
|||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 7.80 / 4,729.49 |
2 6.57 / 4,732.15 |
3 6.19 / 4,740.14 |
||||
| 4 6.19 / 4,740.14 |
5 6.00 / 4,749.47 |
6 6.28 / 4,754.80 |
7 5.71 / 4,756.13 |
8 5.42 / 4,770.79 |
9 6.76 / 4,786.77 |
10 5.33 / 4,793.43 |
| 11 5.33 / 4,793.43 |
12 6.85 / 4,801.43 |
13 6.95 / 4,810.75 |
14 6.95 / 4,821.41 |
15 7.90 / 4,840.06 |
16 10.56 / 4,880.03 |
17 11.04 / 4,894.69 |
| 18 11.04 / 4,894.69 |
19 10.56 / 4,897.35 |
20 11.04 / 4,909.34 |
21 11.90 / 4,922.66 |
22 12.56 / 4,946.64 |
23 12.47 / 4,961.30 |
24 12.85 / 4,973.29 |
| 25 12.85 / 4,973.29 |
26 13.51 / 4,990,61 |
27 13.61 / 5,001.27 |
28 13.42 / 5,009.26 |
29 14.65 / 5,045.23 |
30 12.18 / 5,050.56 |
|
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 12.66 / 5,071.87 |
||||||
| 2 12.66 / 5,071.87 |
3 14.75 / 5,103.85 |
4 14.85 / 5,117.17 |
5 14.65 / 5,127.83 |
6 13.99 / 5,142.48 |
7 14.56 / 5,165.13 |
8 16.08 / 5,198.44 |
| 9 16.08 / 5.198.44 |
10 18.18 / 5,245.07 |
11 19.03 / 5,267.72 |
12 20.84 / 5,301.02 |
13 21.98 / 5,352.98 12.10 / 9,865.74 |
14 |
15 |
| 16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| 23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
| 30 |
31 |
|||||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
| 6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
| 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 8.66 / 6,052.41 3.84 / 10,066.83 |
19 |
| 20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
| 27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
|||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
||||
| 4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
| 11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
| 18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| 25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 12.66 / 6,382.81 16.47 / 10,433.60 |
30 |
31 |
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
| 8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
| 15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
| 22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
| 29 |
30 |
31 |
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* Grays Harbor County does not update their case count data on their website on the weekends. The updates are made at noon on weekdays, and report data as of 11:59 p.m. the previous day.
** As of 2021-01-04 Grays Harbor is no longer reporting daily data on their website. Instead they refer all inquiries to the state Department of Health website, much like Pacific County does. Given this change, plus the fact that the DOH (and therefore the Johns Hopkins CSSE figures) include "likely cases" based on antigen tests, while the county was reporting only positive PCR tests, I will no longer try to update the CSSE numbers using local county data. I am also dropping the separate reporting of Jefferson County data because there is little intercourse between Jefferson County residents and Grays Harbor County residents, and dropping the data from neighboring counties to the two we are concerned about in California and Michigan from the report.
Numbers presented for each date are the currently active cases and contacts count on the first line (for dates after 2020-07-27 and before 2021-01-04), new-case-rate (number of new cases per day per 100,000 people during the most recent two weeks) and case-rate (total number of cases per 100,000 people) for Grays Harbor county on the second line, and the new-case-rate and case-rate for the U.S. as whole on the third line. Numbers highlighted like this indicate the highest or "record" value for the new case rate. Information about how these numbers were calculated may be found on the detail pages linked to for each date. I've included details for counties adjacent to ours, as well as for counties in California and Michigan where we have close relatives.
My usual HTML5/CSS markup was abandoned in March 2021 to better accommodate text-only browsers, which I sometimes find it convenient to use.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Last modified: 2021-07-30 19:53:00 -- Page loaded at: 2024-11-28 00:30:44