CoViD Data Extracts

Grays Harbor County, Washington

In evaluating my personal risk I realized that the most critical information for me is "how many people near me are contagious?" While there are lots of numbers available regarding the spread of CoViD-19 none of them provide a good answer to that question. Counts of the total numbers of people infected, number of hospitalizations, number of deaths, and number of positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 tests are each interesting and informative but they do not answer my question.

The single number that would most directly answer the question is: how many people are currently under quarantine or in isolation and being monitored by the county health department? Our local health department now publishes those numbers alongside the total case count. However, most other jurisdictions don't publish that information, and it is not included in most publicly available datasets.

So, in sifting through the available data I've found that the most useful has been the Johns Hopkins CSSE dataset. It provides a county-level times-series report of cases and deaths. Dead people are not contagious, and cumulative case counts tell how many people have been confirmed to be infected, but not how many are currently infected and infectious. The best proxy I can think of is "how many people in our county have been confirmed as infected within the most recent two weeks?" — which is a number we can calculate from the available data.

We must keep in mind that the actual number of infected and infectious people wandering the streets of our community is some multiple of the number that has actually been tested and confirmed positive recently. There is no good way to estimate that multiplier, though access to current testing data could help. For now I assume the muliplier to be somewhere in the range between 10 and 20. Theoretically, even knowing the number of cases currently being monitored by the health department doesn't actually answer our question because those people with known active infections are required to be isolated and won't be out mingling with the public — but it offers our best window into the local prevalence of the disease..

July 2020

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

 

 

 

1
0.48 / 34.64
11.00 / 792.39

2

3

4
Independence Day

5
0.19 / 34.64
12.82 / 852.50

6
0.76 / 41.30
13.10 / 865.64

7
0.86 / 42.63
13.59 / 882.57

8
0.76 / 42.63
14.07 / 900.12

9
0.86 / 43.96
14.58 / 918.67

10
1.33 / 50.63
15.03 / 938.37

11
1.81 / 58.62
15.43 / 956.42

12
2.09 / 63.95
15.86 / 973.66

13
2.28 / 66.61
16.23 / 990.63

14
2.76/74.61
16.66 / 1,010.68

15
3.05 / 77.27
17.00 / 1,030.41

16
3.05 / 77.27
17.54 / 1,053.40

17
3.52 / 83.93
17.86 / 1,074.29

18
3.81 / 87.93
18.20 / 1,092.73

19
3.71 / 86.60
18.42 / 1,110.51

20
3.33 / 87.93
18.75 / 1128.18

21
3.24 / 87.93
18.88 / 1147.31

22
3.62 / 93.26
19.13 / 1167.89

23
3.52 / 93.26
19.24 / 1188.10

24
3.52 / 99.92
19.34 / 1209.46

25
3.90 / 105.25
19.44 / 1228.62

26
3.62 / 107.91
19.36 / 1244.73

27
2.85 / 107.91
19.29 / 1260.95

28
18 / 46
3.24 / 114.57
19.17 / 1279.03

29
23 / 64
3.05 / 117.24
19.34 / 1301.41

3018 / 64
3.33 / 123.90
19.15 / 1321.41

3118 / 64
3.05 / 126.56
19.06 / 1341.10

 

August 2020

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

118 / 64
2.85 / 127.90
18.95 / 1358.03

218 / 64
3.05 / 129.23
18.66 / 1371.77

321 / 65
3.14 / 131.89
18.34 / 1384.96

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Numbers presented for each date are the currently active cases and contacts count on the first line (for dates after 2020-07-27), new-case-rate and case-rate for Grays Harbor county on the second line, and for the U.S. as whole on the third line. Information about how these numbers were calculated may be found on the detail pages linked to for each date. I've included details for counties adjacent to ours, as well as for counties in California and Michigan where we have close relatives.


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